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Friday, August 26, 2005

Peace Mission 2005

China-Russia War Games

The Beeb makes it sound as if the 10,000-pax war games are sabre-rattling against the US.

I'm far more convinced that it's handy practice for their beef with Japan

All the same, it's a bit dramatic to hear a well-placed commentator talk about war before the year is out ...  

  1. Mr Tang Chunfeng said in Hong Kong that a military clash could erupt between China and Japan by the end of this year.
  2. Mr Tang fears that Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi's domestic political crisis will push him to provoke some sort of dispute, most likely over the East Sea oil and gas fields.
  3. Quoth he: “On the issue of resolving the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East Sea, I am the least optimistic person in China ... I believe China and Japan will fight over it before this year’s end.”
  4. Tang pointed out three potential directions the East Sea conflict might take:
    • The Sino-Japanese relationship deteriorates.
    • Both sides make compromises
    • Or neither side yields, and the conflict becomes long-term.
  5. In any of these three likely scenarios, a military conflict would be a possibility.

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